Tariq Khan examines the latest polling, Senate contest, statewide campaigns and congressional battlegrounds shaping Texas politics ahead of the November 3 elections
(By: Tariq Khan/ Pakistan Chronicle & South Asian Chronicle)
Texas Republicans retain a longstanding advantage in statewide politics, but the 2026 election cycle has produced unusually competitive contests. The US Senate race, several statewide campaigns and key Harris County elections are drawing national attention as candidates compete for voters.
Recent polling shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton running close in the race for the US Senate. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll conducted from September 25 to October 5 found Talarico leading Paxton by 50% to 47% among likely voters. Other surveys have also shown a narrow contest.
The results highlight a competitive election environment, although polls remain snapshots of voter preferences rather than predictions of the final outcome.
US Senate Race: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
The Texas Senate contest is among the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections. Cook Political Report and other election analysts have identified Texas as a competitive Senate battleground.
Recent polls have produced varying results:
| Polling source | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|
| Fox News, October 15–19 | 49% | 49% |
| University of Houston, October 10–14 | 48% | 46% |
| CBS News/YouGov, October 8–16 | 51% | 49% |
| Emerson College, October 17–19 | 49% | 48% |
The surveys differ in their field dates and methodologies. Their results place the candidates close together, with some showing a tie and others a narrow Talarico lead.
What Could Shape the Senate Contest?
Talarico’s campaign faces the challenge of building a broad coalition across major cities, suburban communities and rural areas. Strong participation among younger voters and support from independents could influence the outcome, while the campaign must also address the state’s established Republican voting patterns.
Paxton’s campaign is focused on consolidating Republican support and maintaining turnout among conservative voters. Texas’s history of Republican victories in statewide elections remains an important part of the political context.
The economy, immigration, education, health care and democracy are among the issues shaping the campaign. The preferences of undecided voters and participation levels across different regions could also affect the result.
Libertarian candidate Ted Brown adds another element to the contest. His presence could influence the distribution of votes, although the effect would depend on the choices made by his supporters.
The available polling does not establish a winner. Instead, it shows a competitive contest in which small changes in voter preferences could affect the final margin.
Harris County Precinct 4: Lesley Briones vs. Steve Radack
The Harris County Commissioner Precinct 4 race features Democratic incumbent Lesley Briones and Republican challenger Steve Radack, who previously served as a county commissioner for Precinct 3.
A University of Houston Hobby School survey released October 13 found Briones leading Radack by 49% to 41% among likely voters. The survey also identified substantial differences in support across age groups. Briones led among voters aged 18–34 and 35–54, while Radack led among those aged 55 and older.
Campaign finances have also featured in the contest. Figures cited in the original analysis showed Briones with approximately $4.1 million in cash on hand in July, compared with about $483,000 for Radack. These historical figures should be checked against the latest campaign-finance filings before publication.
Briones benefits from incumbency and the Democratic voting patterns of the precinct. Radack brings extensive county-government experience and can appeal to voters concerned about property taxes, public safety and county administration.
The University of Houston survey found that 72% of respondents disapproved of the county’s recent property-tax increase, while 71% said Harris County was moving in the wrong direction. Despite those concerns, the survey showed Briones leading in the Precinct 4 contest.
Texas Statewide Elections: Governor and Other Offices
The statewide races offer another perspective on the changing political environment.
The University of Houston polling cited in the original analysis reported the following results:
| Race | Republican | Democrat | Poll result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Greg Abbott 49% | Gina Hinojosa 46% | Abbott ahead |
| Lieutenant governor | Dan Patrick 47% | Vikki Goodwin 42% | Patrick ahead |
| Railroad commissioner | Bo French 45% | Jon Rosenthal 43% | French ahead |
These figures represent a particular survey and should not be treated as final results or current polling averages.
The Senate contest has received special attention because polling has shown a close race between Talarico and Paxton. Voters may also split their tickets, supporting candidates from different parties in separate contests.
The outcome of each statewide race will depend on the candidates, campaign issues, voter participation and the political preferences of individual communities.
US House Races to Watch in Texas
Texas has 38 congressional districts, but the competitiveness of individual races varies considerably. Partisan voting patterns, district boundaries, candidate profiles and local issues all influence congressional contests.
The original analysis identifies several districts for particular attention:
| District | Candidates listed in the original analysis | Assessment cited |
|---|---|---|
| TX-15 | Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Bobby Pulido (D) | Toss-up |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R) | Toss-up |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | Lean Democratic |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | Lean Republican |
| TX-9 | Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs. Alex Mealer (R) | Likely Republican |
| TX-23 | Open seat, as listed in the original analysis | Likely Republican |
These matchups and ratings require confirmation against the latest official candidate lists and Cook Political Report’s published race ratings before publication.
South Texas remains an important area for congressional analysis. Local economic concerns, candidate appeal, Latino voter participation and ticket-splitting can influence results in ways that statewide voting patterns alone may not explain.
Texas Legislature and Harris County Elections
Legislative races also deserve attention in 2026. Competitive Texas House contests have been identified in suburban North Texas, South Texas and parts of the Coastal Bend. The original analysis also highlights Texas Senate District 9 in the Fort Worth area.
In Harris County, the University of Houston Hobby School’s October survey reported the following results among likely voters:
- County judge: Democrat Letitia Plummer led Republican Orlando Sanchez, 47% to 40%.
- Commissioner Precinct 2: Democrat Adrian Garcia led Republican Richard Vega, 52% to 40%.
- Commissioner Precinct 4: Democrat Lesley Briones led Republican Steve Radack, 49% to 41%.
The survey included 2,750 Harris County participants and was conducted from October 3 to October 8, 2026. The reported margin of error was plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.
The results showed Democratic candidates leading in the surveyed county contests. At the same time, concerns about property taxes, crime and the direction of county government remained prominent among respondents.
Texas Elections 2026: Key Issues to Watch
The Senate race between Talarico and Paxton, the governor’s contest and competitive congressional districts will provide important measures of voter preferences across Texas.
Local races in Harris County also demonstrate how concerns about taxation, public safety and county administration can shape electoral competition.
Polling offers useful information about voter sentiment, but it cannot guarantee an outcome. Campaign developments, turnout and late shifts in voter preferences may affect the final results.
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